DRuBet.com - VALUE BETS - WHAT IS VALUEBET? HOW IT WORKS?

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VALUE BETS

WHAT IS VALUEBET?

    Value of bet is mathematical way to calculate how good is it. We use probability of some outcome and odd of bookie.

VALUE=ODD*PROBABILITY - result is percentage

    If value is greater than 100% we call it VALUEBET.

HOW IT WORKS?

    When we talk about mathematical game (for example roulette) probability can be calculated. In sport events we can't do it. Every bookie calculate some probability and calculate odds on this probability.
WE USE ARITHMETIC MEAN OF PROBABILITIES OF ALL BOOKIES.
    Conclusion is : betting on valuebets chances are for person who bet. THAT NOT MEAN YOU WILL WIN -just making many valuebets probability balance to be positive is very big.

CALCULATING PROBABILITY

    First step is to calculate payback (D) for bookie(K1,KX,K2 - odds):

D = 100/(1/K1+1/KX+1/K2)

    Next step is to calculate probabilities for 1,X,2(P1,PX,P2):

P1 = D/K1

PX = D/KX

P2 = D/K2

D,P1,PX,P2 - percentage.

EXAMPLE:

Bookmaker	K1	KX	K2	D	P1	PX	P2	V1	VX	V2
Bet24	5,5	4,3	1,4	88,6	16,11	20,6	63,29	94,19	85,49	88,19
Betandwin.com	5,15	4,25	1,4	87,43	16,98	20,57	62,45	88,19	84,50	88,19
Centrebet	4,1	4,45	1,5	88,08	21,48	19,79	58,72	70,21	88,48	94,49
Expekt	4,95	4,45	1,4	87,64	17,71	19,69	62,6	84,77	88,48	88,19
Ladbrokes.com	5	5	1,36	88,08	17,62	17,62	64,77	85,63	99,41	85,67
Sportingbet	5,25	4,25	1,4	87,71	16,71	20,64	62,65	89,91	84,50	88,19
Svenska Spel	4,5	3,9	1,3	80,14	17,81	20,55	61,64	77,06	77,54	81,89
Unibet	7	4,5	1,3	88,16	12,59	19,59	67,81	119,88	89,47	81,89

means	5,18	4,39	1,38	86,98	17,13	19,88	62,99